The Istanbul Problem:
• The 1999 earthquake sequence in northwestern Turkey probably has
overstressed the segment of the North Anatolian Fault just south of
Istanbul.  The probability of a major earthquake striking Istanbul in the
next thirty years has doubled.
• The 1999 sequence killed 17,000 and caused extensive property
damage.  Public awareness of earthquake risk in Turkey is high.
Reducing earthquake loss is a high priority policy problem in Turkey,
and is a component of World Bank lending program. Turning point for
city planning.
• 13M people, 75% illegal construction. Scenario earthquake predicted to
kill 60-70000 and destroy 10,000 buildings.
• We know enough to save lives.  Can Istanbul be the leading example
or large-scale mitigation?