• We are in the Anthropocene Age
• and we are not getting out of it any time soon
• There will be surprises; sudden surprises
• Do models underestimate what lies ahead of us?
• It is difficult to disentangle current effects of
greenhouse warming and natural variations
• Natural variations such as El Niño have profound
impacts on human affairs, including health
• Predictions of El Niño have been used to mitigate
impacts